A Big Successful Story in China (TPG)

HONG KONG -- TPG is close to a deal to offload at least part of its $1.5 billion controlling stake in Shenzhen Development Bank Co. to China's No. 2 insurer, providing an exit route for the U.S. private-equity firm's highest-profile investment in China.

Ping An Insurance (Group) Co. of China is in advanced talks with TPG and Shenzhen Development to boost its stake in the Chinese bank by subscribing to new shares in a placement by the bank and taking at least some of TPG's shares, according to people familiar with the situation. The negotiations over the two-stage deal could be hammered out this week, the people said. The exact terms of the sale couldn't be determined, and the situation could change.TPG's sale is expected to garner a spectacular return, justifying the risky bet it placed on the Chinese bank five years ago. Based on Shenzhen Development's last trading price, TPG's stake is worth $1.5 billion, 10 times the roughly $150 million TPG's Asian arm Newbridge Capital paid for the shares in 2004. TPG's control of the bank could allow it to extract a premium to Friday's closing price of 20 yuan ($2.93) apiece.Shares in both Shenzhen Development and Ping An were suspended Monday pending announcements.The selldown of TPG's 17% controlling stake in Shenzhen Development would be a landmark because TPG is the only foreign investor to own control of a Chinese bank. It has worked hard to overhaul the bank's risk management and cement its control.TPG is able to control the bank with its 17% holding because the Chinese lender's shares are widely held.TPG furthered its control by appointing a former U.S. Treasury deputy secretary, Frank Newman, as chairman of the bank and has worked since the 2004 purchase to stack the bank's board with allies.When TPG invested in Shenzhen Development, foreign investors were wary of touching Chinese banks because of balance sheets laden with nonperforming loans racked up by years of state-directed lending. Shenzhen Development had similar problems to other lenders and received less government support to clean its balance sheet than its bigger state peers, making the bank's turnaround a major endeavor.Talks over the sale come after Shenzhen Development's shares have more than doubled this year as expectations for a rebound in China's economy grow. TPG's exit timing appears to be more opportunistic than sales by several Western banks that have unloaded their Chinese bank holdings this year under pressure from regulators to raise capital.After much wrangling, TPG sealed the deal in 2004 that gave it effective control over the bank and assuaged regulators with an agreement for a five-year lockup on the stake when it purchased the shares. That lockup is scheduled to expire later this year, and it is unclear how TPG intends to clear that hurdle.Shenzhen-based Ping An, the country's second-largest insurer by premiums after China Life Insurance Co., is a natural buyer for the stake. Beyond sharing the same hometown, acquiring a bigger stake in Shenzhen Development will help the insurer further branch out into banking. Ping An Chairman Peter Ma envisions turning the insurer into a diversified financial conglomerate by beefing up its banking and asset-management businesses.Ping An's ambitions to expand took a turn for the worse when it made an ill-timed investment in Fortis NV in late 2007 that cost it about $3 billion. It also scrapped a $3.4 billion deal to form an asset-management joint venture with Fortis and fought the Belgian government's attempt to sell the financial-services group to BNP Paribas SA.Following that disastrous investment, Ping An decided to focus its energies on building its domestic franchise. Buying the Shenzhen Development stake would help extend Ping An's banking reach beyond a network it has built through its own Ping An Bank.Ping An is already the second-largest shareholder of Shenzhen Development, with a 4.9% stake as of Dec. 31.Goldman Sachs Group Inc. is advising Ping An on the deal.For Shenzhen Development, the deal's component that involves the sale of new shares will help it raise more capital to meet regulatory standards."The purpose of the fund raising is to raise the bank's capital-adequacy ratio above 10%," said a Shenzhen Development executive.Shenzhen Development's capital-adequacy ratio was 8.5% at the end of March, below the 10% prerequisite for Chinese banks that plan to conduct mergers and acquisitions.Shenzhen Development, one of 17 lenders in China that has a national license, had 282 outlets throughout the country at the end of last year.

In China, Brands Come With Plots - WSJ

The line between advertisers and entertainment producers is rapidly blurring in China, as many brands go online with their own films and Web series, taking advantage of the shortage of popular shows on China's state-controlled TV.

Increasingly, advertisers are moving from being mere sponsors of online entertainment to building plots around their products. Among the latest to jump on the bandwagon is French liquor company Pernod RicardSA. In late April, Pernod launched an interactive online movie to promote one of its cognac brands, Martell Noblige.

Called "Style, Experience," the film plays like a watered-down homage to James Bond and "The Bonfire of the Vanities." The plot centers around a crucial day in the life of Ken, a dashing Shanghai native who tools around in a BMW, lives in a gunmetal-gray bachelor pad and has plenty of rich-boy toys.

Viewers determine the plot and length of the movie, which can last from eight to 18 minutes, as they "help" the hero make choices that could ultimately result in him getting promoted and winning the girl, or ending up dateless and jobless. (The movie airs on Martell's local Web site http://www.martellnoblige.com.cn.)

Product placement, while hardly subtle, isn't intrusive, with cognac bottles lurking in the background as Ken -- played by talk-show host Bai Xuxu -- dates and otherwise disports himself, backed by a sophisticated soundtrack.

The movie marks the culmination of a yearlong digital-ad campaign by Pernod, in which the company, among other things, sent bloggers to various Chinese cities to review trends.

Pernod won't disclose the cost of the campaign, which is intended to help establish Martell Noblige in China's $37 billion-a-year spirits market. China is the world's second-largest cognac market in terms of volumes consumed, behind the U.S., according to researcher Euromonitor International.

Pernod has established a strong foothold in the Chinese market, overtaking Rémy Cointreau Group for second place, with 26% market share, compared with Rémy's 20%, as of 2007, the latest data available from Euromonitor. Both companies still lag behind leader LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton, which holds a 44% market share.

Pernod's Martell Noblige is relatively new to China's cognac consumers, who are more familiar with Martell VSOP and XO. Noblige is typically served in mixed drinks, and is intended for a much younger audience, says Yann Lombard-Platet, managing director at ad agency Nurun, which created the campaign. "The way to engage this audience is to provide entertainment and content," he says.

It's something Chinese audiences don't seem to mind. "People in China have fewer options for entertainment. They think, 'So long as you give me something interesting, I don't mind if your brand somehow shows up,' which is something that viewers in the U.S. or Europe would be less receptive to," said Chris Reitermann, president of OgilvyOne China, a unit of ad holding company WPP.

Last year, Anglo-Dutch consumer-goods maker Unilever launched a Chinese version of ABC-TV's comedy "Ugly Betty," called "Ugly Wudi," with plotlines that plug Dove soap. Earlier this year, Sony Corp.'s Sony Pictures Television International kicked off "Sufei's Diary," a Chinese twist on "Sofia's Diary," a Web series that originated in Portugal; the Chinese version touts Sony and Clinique products in three-minute daily episodes.

The Martell ad campaign attempts to engage this online audience longer. "A movie of 15 minutes allows an audience to sit and think what it is they are doing, rather than passively looking. In a two-minute miniseries, there's hardly any time," says Mr. Lombard-Platet.

The difficulty is assessing the effectiveness of these new digital initiatives. So far, the Martell Noblige Web site has received 1.2 million visitors, as measured by Google Analytics, a modest number by China standards.

However, a quarter of the audience spent more than 25 minutes on the site, and 40% of those viewers returned to watch the movie again, which suggests a relatively strong level of engagement.

Nurun, a division of Canada's Quebecor Media Group, said Web chatter about Martell Noblige has increased threefold since the campaign started. But Nurun is still assessing the quality of the buzz to determine how much of the chatter is positive, and if the campaign has made viewers more predisposed to buy the product.

China New Policy

Beginning August 1, Chinese companies can now use their foreign exchange funds or buy from the state reserve to fund overseas ventures; easing rules for overseas investments. According to the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE), previously only large multinational companies were allowed to use their forex funds to lend to overseas ventures. “We had done a stress test, and the maximum possible capital outflow from this new mechanism will be US$30 billion,” quoted an official. The new rules allows forex outflow to be capped at 30 percent of the parent company’s net assets while also not exceeding the subsidiary’s total investment registered with SAFE. This condition should safeguard against forex outflows having a huge impact on China’s balance of payments.

Bio-Bridge Science Signs a Contract to Form a Cell-Culture Medium Joint Venture in Beijing, China

OAK BROOK, Ill., Jun 10, 2009 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- Bio-Bridge Science, Inc.(OTCBB:BGES), a biotechnology company engaged in the commercial development of vaccines and vaccine-related products announced today that its wholly-owned subsidiary, Bio-Bridge Science (HK) Co., Ltd. has entered into a joint venture contract with JR Scientific Inc., a Woodland, California based manufacturer of classical and custom cell culture medium and sera products ("JRS") and several other investors, to form a new cell culture medium joint venture in Beijing, China. The registered capital of the new joint venture will be RMB 10,000,000 (approximately US $1,464,000). Bio-Bridge Science will invest RMB 5,100,000 in cash for a 51% controlling interest and JRS will provide technology for a 15% ownership interest in the new joint venture.The new joint venture is expected to provide cell culture medium for scientific research and vaccine production for both internal and external purposes, as well as, to provide the Company with another source of revenue,diversified product offerings, and expanded sales and trade networks.Dr. Liang Qiao, Chairman and CEO of Bio-Bridge Science said, "We are pleased to see the execution of the joint venture contract among Bio-Bridge Science, JRS and other investors. The new joint venture will complement our previous controlling stake acquisition of Xinheng Baide Biotechnology Co. Ltd., a serum manufacturing company, strengthening our position as a vaccine-related biomaterials supplier in China." This press release contains forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements include statements concerning plans, objectives, goals, strategies, future events or performance, and underlying assumptions and other statements that are other than statements of historical facts. These statements are subject to uncertainties and risks including, but not limited to, product and service demand and acceptance, changes in technology, economic conditions, the impact of competition and pricing, government regulation, and other risks defined in this document and in statements filed from time to time with the Securities and Exchange Commission. All such forward-looking statements, whether written or oral, and whether made by or on behalf of the company, are expressly qualified by these cautionary statements and any other cautionary statements which may accompany the forward-looking statements. In addition, the company disclaims any obligation to update any forward-looking statements to reflect events or circumstances after the date hereof. Please refer to the Company's SEC filings for additional information.

Chinese Auto Sales Surge Ahead

Beijing's policies to support China's auto market drove sales up 34% in May, according to data issued Tuesday by a semi-official industry group, as the country remained a standout in the struggling global car industry.Auto sales last month totaled 1.12 million units, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers said. In contrast, U.S. car sales fell 34% in May to 925,824 units."Based on the current momentum, sales this year will easily reach 10 million units," said Global Insight analyst John Zeng. "For this year, there is no question about growth."China's auto sales in 2008 rose 6.7% to 9.38 million units. Sales in the first five months of this year rose 14% from a year earlier to 4.96 million units, according to the CAAM data, the first time China's car sales growth has hit double digit percentages this year.The latest data show Chinese consumers are still responding to government measures implemented early this year to boost small car sales, which included subsidies and a purchase tax cut. For example, sales of minibuses, a segment that benefits from the policies, rose 84% in May from a year earlier to 172,600 units.Sales of other vehicle segments have also been growing. Passenger car sales rose 42% from a year earlier to 591,300 units, while sales of sport-utility vehicles rose 26% to 47,700 units, CAAM said.Car sales in China are soaring even as sales in developed markets are falling. New-car registrations in Japan fell 19% in May to 178,503 units and new car registrations in Europe dropped 12% to 1.25 million units in April.Mr. Zeng said the lasting impact of the measures has surprised some in the industry. Forecasts by analysts and industry officials early this year called for flat or low-single digit growth for 2009 and some observers had expected that the impact of the measures would have petered out by now.To be sure, the strong sales so far this year could mean that some buyers are bringing forward the timing of their car purchases, which could cut into sales numbers down the road.However, as sales in the second half of last year were weak, on-year growth is still likely to be positive.China's auto market likely has seen its peak for the year, Mr. Zeng said, adding that June has already shown signs of a slowdown in sales. The summer months have traditionally been slow, he said.Mr. Zeng said the biggest beneficiaries of the government policies are General Motors Corp.'s commercial vehicle joint venture in China, SAIC-GM-Wuling Automobile Co., and Chongqing Changan Automobile Co.Consumers who buy the Wuling Sunshine and Wuling Rong Guang minivans and Changan Star minibuses qualify for the government incentives because of the models' small engines. __ WSJ

China Has No Intention of Dumping Dollar

China, the world's largest holder of official foreign exchange reserves, has no intention of abandoning the U.S. dollar, Vice Foreign Minister He Yafei said on Tuesday.He was speaking at a news briefing on President Hu Jintao's forthcoming trip to Russia, where he will attend an inaugural summit of the BRIC countries -- Brazil, Russia, India and China -- in Yekaterinburg on June 16.Russian President Dmitry Medvedev and others have said the meeting would discuss the search for alternatives to the dollar as the world's principal reserve currency.But, asked about the issue, He said: "Nobody is talking about dumping the dollar. I don't think this is realistic."Chinese central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan caused a stir in late March by proposing that the Special Drawing Right, the International Monetary Fund's unit of account, could eventually replace the dollar.Asked if the summit would broach the idea of a supernational currency, He said: "At the moment there are some experts and academics who have raised this issue and are discussing it at that level."

Bain Capital Invests in China's GOME

HONG KONG – Private-equity firm Bain Capital LLC has signed a contract to invest 3 billion yuan ($440 million) in Chinese retailer GOME Electrical Appliances Holdings Ltd., people familiar with the situation said Sunday.The moves comes as ripples surrounding alleged "economic crimes" committed by the company's former chairman, Wong Kwong Yu, spread. Shenzhen Mayor Xu Zongheng and his wife were put under shuanggui -- a form of detention imposed on party officials -- in an investigation into his alleged links to Mr. Wong, the South China Morning Post reported Saturday. The paper also said Mr. Wong was involved in share-price manipulation."Bain's investment will hopefully salvage shareholders' confidence and dilute people's concerns over Wong's influence on the company," one person said. "This is a credible house buying into the company, after much detailed due diligence."Under the contract, Bain will take up an 18% equity stake in Gome via open tender at HK$0.67 each and will subscribe to seven-year convertible bonds which can be converted into new shares, another person said. The bonds, with a conversion price set at HK$1.18 or a slight 5% premium over Gome's last trading price, would give Bain an added 12% stake at most in Gome, he said.GOME was last traded at HK$1.12 apiece. Its shares have been suspended from trading since Nov. 24, after an investigation began on its ex-chairman Mr. Wong.The investment will also give Bain three board seats in the company, the person said. Details of the deal will be announced as soon as Tuesday, another person said.When the conversion on the bonds into new shares is fully exercised, Bain will have an about 27% stake. Wong now has a 35.6% stake in Gome."Since Wong resigned from the chairmanship, Gome has been run by people unrelated to him," the first person said. "Wong is no more than a shareholder in the company now."Gome's management had gone through a major reshuffle since Mr. Wong, Gome's founder, resigned in January after he was suspended from his post in December. He was replaced by Chief Executive Chen Xiao, who has been chief since a company he founded, China Paradise Electronics Retail Ltd., was bought out by GOME.Gome has since been seeking fresh capital via a stake sale to private equity funds to shore up its balance sheet, at a time when its operations have been hit by the onset of the financial crisis and falling appetite for consumption goods.Gome, which has more than 800 retail outlets throughout China, had 3.05 billion yuan ($448 million) in cash and cash equivalents at the end of last year, but the retailer has to repay 4.70 billion yuan as convertible bonds it issued will mature next year. Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co. and Warburg Pincus expressed interest in the Beijing-based company earlier on, but later dropped out, leaving Bain as the only horse in the race. Warburg Pincus already holds a minority stake in Gome and has one nonexecutive director seat on the board.Cazenove Asia Ltd., which has been integrated into Standard Chartered PLC and N M Rothschild & Sons (Hong Kong) Ltd. are financial advisors to Gome.

call to go green in china

Chinese minister of environment, Mr. Zhou, has a word of warning for the newly rich."It is a disgraceful lifestyle to drive a BMW but have only dirty water to drink." We should be concerned about a lack of respect for the environment as the country carries out its economic stimulus plan. To Fact-finding teams from the Ministry of Environmental Protection recently visited some 40 cities and discovered defects in the 4-trillion yuan stimulus package, which is funding investment in many new infrastructure projects and factories. Of particular concern is environmental protection not being highlighted in the overall plan; new industrial operations causing additional environmental problems in China's central and western frontier regions; national environmental protection policies being affected; environmental management by companies becoming more relaxed, and corporate investment in pollution control seeing a marked decline.

From November to the end of February, the ministry rejected or suspended approval of 14 polluting and high energy-consuming projects with development budgets totaling 104 billion yuan. On top of that, ministry officials told China Daily yesterday that due partly to government policing of investment projects, China is fully capable of meeting its goals in the emission control of sulfur dioxide and chemical oxygen demand, a main index of water pollution. The target is to cut emissions by 10 percent of the nation's 2005 level, in line with the goals for the country's 2006-2010 development program.Controlling those two emissions had only been possible when developed countries' per capita GDP reached the $20,000 level. It is a feat for China to achieve the same when its per capital GDP is only around $3,000, he said.This is because the country has come to realize that no economic policy can be successful if not matched by sound environmental policy, Zhou said. Convinced that China can "use the crisis as an opportunity to adjust its industrial structure," Zhou also said he and his staff would keep an eye out for local governments attempting to ignore environmental protection in their investment initiatives.

中国证监会就改革新股发行制度征求意见

中

国证券监督管理委员会(China Securities Regulatory Commission, 简称：中国证监会)周五发布了《关于进一步改革和完善新股发行体制的指导意见（征求意见稿）》，这预示着自去年9月份以来已暂停数月的IPO活动即将恢复。中国证监会称，征求意见时间截至6月5日，指导意见征求意见结束并正式发布后，即会重启IPO活动。该规定旨在解决中国市场IPO过程中的两个常见问题：新股发行价通常定的非常低，而上市首日股价大幅飙升；散户投资者在申购新股时处于不利地位。证监会在其网站上发布的公告中指出，发行体制改革旨在使新股定价进一步市场化，提高散户投资者申购中签率。证监会表示，新股发行体制改革将进一步淡化对新股定价的窗口指导，增强价格形成机制市场化的力度。但证监会没有给出如何实现上述转变的具体措施。为在新股发行方式上体现公平，证监会表示，对每一只股票发行，任一股票配售对象只能选择网下或者网上一种方式进行新股申购。目前，机构投资者既可网上申购也可参与网下配售，而散户投资者只能通过网上申购。证监会表示，股份分配将向有意向购股的中小投资者适当倾斜。此举也反映出今年迄今为止国内市场的强劲表现。雷曼兄弟控股公司(Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.)倒闭后，由于担心流动性压力可能令中国本已疲软的市场状况恶化，中国政府非正式地暂停了IPO活动。中国证监会表示，在实施改革措施的初期，将密切关注市场意见，把握节奏，稳步展开相应工作。

杂

＊ 谁说中国只进口石油，柴油？ 中国海关总署(General Administration of Customs)周五公布的月度最终数据显示，中国4月份柴油出口再创新高，汽油出口创近两年来最高水平。 当然， 中国4月份煤炭进口量达到创纪录的916万吨，较上年同期增长一倍多。中国出口降幅扩大 外部经济前景黯淡

上海未来:上海本地股投资策略

爱建证券 投资要点: 上海经济面临转型。推进上海加快发展现代服务业和先进制造业,加快建设国际金融中心、国际航运中心和现代国际大都市,转变经济发展方式,突破资源环境承载能力制约,实现全面协调可持续发展,是继续发挥上海在全国的带动和示范作用的必然选择,也是中国现代化建设和继续推动改革开放的需要。今年上海本地股强于大盘。上海本地股共153只,截止到2009年4月底总市值2.5万亿,占全部A股的11.84%。今年上海板块走强上证综指12个百分点,与两个中心建设、世博会、迪斯尼落户上海、南汇并入上海有关。两个中心建设。上海本地股短期上涨是对两个中心的正面反应,从长期看尚未完全反映重大政策利好所带来的成长潜力,未来仍有进一步市场表现。操作上,对部分估值合理、成长性明确的个股给予中长线积极关注,重点关注:

浦发银行、海通证券、浦东建设、陆家嘴、中华企业、上港集团。

世博会。目前上海世博会已进入倒计时一周年,基建投资进入最后冲刺阶段,消费领域开始活跃。因此,我们认为目前阶段可以重点把握上海本地股中投资、消费的轮动机会。基于世博热点有望持续较长时间,我们重点关注:建筑业-浦东建设;房地产-陆家嘴、张江高科、上实发展;商业零售-豫园商城、新世界;酒店-锦江股份;传媒-东方明珠;交通运输-申通地铁、上海机场、大众交通..迪斯尼落户上海。所带来的投资机遇主要分为前成前后两个方面:建成前直接受益的主要是地块资源涉及迪士尼选址地的房地产企业,可能参与迪士尼工程建设和经营的建筑公司;建成后开园纳客则逐步惠及上海本地的交通、餐饮、商业、地产、旅游等系列产业的发展。南汇并入浦东。先阶段最为直接的就是土地资源所带来的投资机会。相对于原有浦东土地资源紧缺形势,南汇规划产业用地高达187平方公里,居全市之首,丰富的土地资源催生了巨大的产业发展空间。“大浦东”概念下,现拥有原南汇区土地储备或者有望获取更多土地储备的上市公司将获得更大的发展机遇,这主要是浦东的四大房地产集团(陆家嘴集团、张江集团、金桥集团和外高桥集团)和中华企业。

国资整合。投资机会:1、大集团资产整合平台:关注百联集团、锦江集团、华谊集团和光明集团未来的整合动作。2、处于整合进程中的上市公司:上实医药、上海机场、外高桥;3、区国资委大力支持的上市公司:上工申贝、上海九百益民百货金山开发亚通股份;4、有资产注入预期的大集团小公司:中华企业、金丰投资、隧道股份、交运股份、上海建工、上海兰生、上海贝岭、长江投资;5、壳资源:如仪电集团的上海金陵、飞乐音响、飞乐股份;地产集团的锦江投资;锦江集团的中西药业;百联集团的友谊股份等..投资策略。从上述的投资主题,我们重点推荐浦发银行、海通证券、陆家嘴、张江高科、中华企业、锦江股份、申通地铁、城投控股、东方明珠、豫园商城、上实医药、上工申贝、亚通股份等。

出口退税“全退”产品酝酿扩容

核心提示:专家认为,部分行业出口退税实现全征全退,虽然并不就是促进出口的“灵丹妙药”,但企业利润将会因此增加,从而降低生产成本,提高出口竞争力。但全额退税也将给财政带来较大压力。据了解,目前70%的机电产品出口退税已实现“全征全退”,纺织品、服装的出口退税率也已提高到接近全退的16%。国务院办公厅5月18日发布的《轻工业调整和振兴规划》则表示,将进一步提高部分轻工产品出口退税率. 该专家预计,全额退税将带来接近万亿的财政支出,给财政带来较大压力。一季度,全国财政收入同比下降8.3%,而财政支出增长了34.8%。“如果今年实施全额退税,9500亿元的赤字预算恐怕要突破。”

惠誉：中国银行业显示出资产质量恶化迹象

信

用评级机构惠誉国际评级(Fitch Ratings)表示，随着用于支持政府经济刺激计划项目的新增贷款急剧增长，中国银行业正初步显示出资产质量恶化的迹象。今年前四个月，中国新增人民币贷款总计5.17万亿元（合7,570亿美元左右），已经超出去年全年的规模。2008年全年新增人民币贷款4.91万亿元。随着贷款猛增，中国政府官员频频就金融风险上升发出警告。出于对部分资金可能被用于金融投机的担忧，本周早些时候，中国政府宣布相关措施，确保贷款流向实体经济。惠誉在周四发布的一份有关中国银行业的报告中称，中国银行体系正发出初步的警示信号。该报告撰写人之一、惠誉国际评级中国子公司高级董事Charlence Chu称，中资银行已经将更多“需要关注类”贷款（被银行认为可能违约的信贷）的等级下调至坏帐，即不良资产。Chu称，中资银行还为未减值贷款计入了更多拨备，表明银行本身已经预料到当前正常的贷款将在未来出现更大损失。
在该报告发布前，惠誉已经就中国银行业贷款质量正在恶化发出预警。惠誉一直认为，有关中国银行业的一些统计数据并不全面，例如偏低的不良贷款率。报告指出，对于需要关注类贷款等项目以及划分贷款类别的方式所带来的风险，银行还几乎没有意识到。这份最新报告指出，信贷大幅扩大加上疲弱的经济正在导致这类风险被放大。报告还指出，在中国的外资银行不良贷款率一直在上升，而这类银行通常被认为具有较高的风险管理标准和监督准则。惠誉称，鉴于当前庞大的银行放贷规模，短期内很难察觉潜在的信贷危机。但Chu称，全球经济继续恶化，中国的内需还没有完全释放，贷款企业纷纷公布利润下降且信用违约的可能性也随之加大。这将给银行带来负面影响。Chu称，在这些问题中，最令人担心的是在企业利润下滑之际，近期银行对企业的风险敞口明显加大。她说，企业收益下降通常伴随着信贷紧缩，然而中国当前的情况却截然相反，这表明尽管经历了多年的改革，中国银行在扶持本地企业方面仍在发挥重要的政策性银行作用。

杂感

A. “服务中心”在闽福发A、东方银星和中原环保的持股数量分别为160万股、93万股和30万股，在这三家公司都跻身十大流通股东之列。这一事实的暴露激起了公众的怒火，记者和互联网用户对此类作法的合法性提出质疑，并担心政府机构是否动用纳税人的钱炒股。

B. 香港银行业从中央政府获得支持, 汇丰控股(HSBC)和渣打集团(Standard Chartered)， 永亨银行(Wing Hang)、东亚银行(Bank of East Asia)或恒生银行(Hang Seng)等规模较小的香港银行。 一是对于香港银行在广东省开设分支机构给于更大的灵活性；二是预期中的中国大陆和香港跨境贸易人民币结算试点计划。

C. 中国总理温家中国将在近期再向欧洲派出采购团，增加从欧洲的进口。刚才中欧签署了有关能源、科技和中小企业三个合作协议

海外机构投资者谨慎看好中国概念

迹象显示中国的大规模的经济刺激计划开始生效，一些策略师也因此建议，投资者关注这个已经给全球市场带来提振的国家。在其它许多经济体纷纷出现负增长之际，中国推出了两年投资5,860亿美元的方案，以刺激国内需求。其目标是2009年能保持8%的国内生产总值(GDP)增长速度。这个全球第三大经济体一季度的GDP增速放缓至6.1%，是10年来增长最慢的一个季度。投资顾问公司Global Trends Investments总裁莱登(Tom Lydon)说，看来这次中国在帮助其它国家走出全球衰退方面可以大有作为。他说，尽管中国的GDP增速目前处于几十年来的最低点，但仍保持增长，中国有很多人对未来持积极态度。不过并不是所有策略师都感到乐观。比如，Emerging Market Strategies的甘姆伯(William Gamble)说，他对来自中国的经济信息表示怀疑。而且，新兴市场研究公司Riedel Research Group总裁里德尔(David Riedel)说，许多投资者都对中国股市去年的暴跌心有余悸。还有人担心近期的反弹已接近尾声。但里德尔分辩说，中国还存在着大量的机会。他说，人们通常看到的是中国现代化的一面：上海和北京、以及夏季奥运会。但担心中国缺乏短期和长期增长潜力的人也忽视了这样一个事实，即中国经济和社会仍有很大一部分需要大量投资。

投资欲望增强

在突如其来的全球金融危机和信贷危机终结了亚洲股市五年来的牛市后，中国在11月份公布了经济刺激计划。但由于中国是全球铜和铝的最大消费国，并同美国一道都是主要的原油消费大国，许多市场人士都对中国的刺激方案寄予了厚望。中国还针对汽车和钢铁等十大行业单独推出了刺激计划。中国最近公布，采购经理人指数这一重要经济指标出现了改善，该指数4月份升至了53.5，高于3月份的52.4。采购经理人指数高于50就表明经济处于扩张之中。这一指数去年11月曾跌至38.8的历史低点。自今年年初以来，机构投资者们一直在将资金投入专注于中国市场的基金和新兴市场基金。资金流和资产配置数据提供商EPFR Global的数据显示，截至5月14日，新兴市场股票基金的资金净流入总计为186亿美元。去年同期则为总计流出65亿美元。为美国投资者进行国际交易的经纪公司Auerbach Grayson的新兴市场销售主管伯格(John Burge)说，散户开始回到这个市场；我跟很多美国共同基金经理谈过，他们中很多人错过了这一市场走势。EPFR说，截至5月14日，流入指定中国股票基金和大中华区股票基金（包括投资中国大陆、香港和台湾）的资金总计为31亿美元。去年同期则是总计流出15亿美元。据基金研究机构理柏(Lipper Inc.)的数据显示，截至5月14日，中国区基金平均收益为22%。截至4月30日，该公司跟踪的79只基金的总计净资产为153亿美元。2008年，该公司跟踪的65只基金平均缩水52.7%。EPFR说，此外，中国在全球新兴市场股票基金中的平均权重从2008年年中的9.9%升至16.4%。
新兴市场股票基金的基准为MSCI Emerging Markets Index。继去年下跌54%之后，今年以来该指数已经上涨了31%。
继2008年下跌65%之后，今年以来上证综合指数涨了约45%。2008年该指数的跌幅仅次于俄罗斯RTS指数72%的跌幅。
继2008年跌了48%之后，今年以来香港恒生指数涨了约17%。与此同时，台湾台股指数涨了42%，几乎抹平了去年46%的跌幅。台湾视中国大陆和美国为自己最大的出口市场。

需关注的股票

尽管中国的复苏看起来很有希望，分析师们说投资者不应该完全指望刺激措施来拯救全球经济，甚至是拯救中国本国的经济。晨星公司(Morningstar)共同基金分析业务副主管杜塔(Arijit Dutta)说，投资者应该研究一只具体的基金或是交易所买卖基金是如何构建的。他说，首先要看的是，一只基金在中国有什么样的配置；一个投资组合是否在扩大内需措施的受益者──地方电信、银行、甚至铁路企业股票上有更大的敞口？政府刺激计划目前有38%的资金投向了基础设施，有25%投向了四川地震灾区的重建工作。其他涉及到的领域还包括技术进步和可持续发展。杜塔推荐的一个产品是马修斯中国基金(Matthews China Fund)，原因主要是这只基金关注中国的消费趋势。该基金的经理Richard Gao说，我们在与出口直接相关的企业上几乎没有敞口，我们坚信内需将是经济增长的推动力。他还说，4月份汽车销量较去年同期增长25%，零售额增长14.8%，这些也都是积极的迹象。另外一个引人注目的数据是城镇投资──在政府项目的推动下，城镇投资今年前4个月增长了30.5%。Riedel Research的里德尔说，农村地区的发展占了政府刺激计划的9%，由于中国约有8亿人在农村地区生活和工作，对农村地区的投资在消费领域创造了很多机会。他推荐中国移动(China Mobile Ltd.)和门户网站搜狐(Sohu.com Inc.)，原因是散户投资者可以马上投资这两家公司在美上市的股票，而且这些股票将从中国的增长中获益。

投资H股
Auerbach Grayson当地一家合作伙伴KGI的香港研究业务主管Richard Lee说，他对信贷的扩大尤其感到欢欣鼓舞。中资银行一季度新增贷款人民币4.58万亿元（合6,700亿美元），完成了政府今年人民币5万亿元目标的90%以上。2008年银行贷款为人民币4.9万亿元。他说，放贷至关重要，这和去年银行担心害怕的情况正好相反。举例来讲，4月份新增贷款较上年同期增长27%，不过仍低于市场预期。4月份工业产值增长7.3%，不及预期8%的增幅。不过他对经济下滑已经触底表示乐观。由于经济活动增加时能源的消耗会上升，他尤其看好能源业。他看好的股票包括：在中国9个省份都有厂子的华润电力控股有限公司(China Resources Power Holdings Co.)。该公司股票将成为香港基准恒生指数的成份股。他说，房地产交易量的连年增长对房地产开发商和建材供应商来说是好兆头。他看好安徽海螺水泥股份有限公司(Anhui Conch Cement Co.)、中国海外发展有限公司(China Overseas Land & Investment)和首创置业股份有限公司(Beijing Capital Land)。他专注于恒生中国企业指数（即H股指数）公司。H股是在香港交易所上市的大陆公司的股票，海外投资者可以普遍交易H股。A股市场基本上不对外国投资者开放。B股虽然对外国投资者开放，但是由于H股的出现，B股市场近几年的流动性水平有所下降。今年以来H股指数上涨了约22%。2008年则跌了51%。投资管理公司Cabot Money Management首席投资长卢茨(Rob Lutts)说，投资者可以通过传统或是网络经纪商进入香港市场，费用应该为每笔交易2%-3%。他说，你可以讨价还价，你可以和他们合作。他说，一种进入A股市场的零售渠道是摩根士丹利中国A股基金（Morgan Stanley China A Share Fund），这是从2007年开始推出的一种封闭型基金。卢茨看好高端服装生产商宝姿时装有限公司(Ports Design Ltd.)，原因是该公司提供对奢侈品市场的敞口。他最看好的公司是百度(Baidu.com Inc.)，部分原因是中国是世界上增长最迅速的互联网市场之一。Global Trends Investments的莱登建议，投资者考虑关注中国市场的交易所买卖基金。他推荐代表中国25家最大型企业的A50中国基金、PowerShares Golden Dragon和SPDR S&P China ETF。他还说，中国相关交易所买卖基金较3月9日的低点涨了约50%，大部分地区性交易所买卖基金高于200天移动平均的长期趋向线。莱登说，有一些构建良好的中国相关指数，代表这类指数的交易所买卖基金具有多样化、低费用和流动性的特点。

香港的新一轮泡沫

香

港可能正在形成泡沫。这要归咎或者归功于香港的联系汇率制度，具体取决于你从什么角度去看。由于对中国经济重新建立了信心，投资者们正考虑在香港股市买进。香港的联系汇率制意味着，香港央行现在要忙着发行港币，以满足激增的港币需求。香港金融管理局(Hong Kong Monetary Authority, 简称：香港金管局)今年3月和4月在外汇市场投放了价值110亿美元的港币。5月迄今，香港金管局至少有9天进行了干预，仅上周四就再度投放了价值10亿美元的港币。香港金管局网站上的信息显示，其上一次大规模投放港币是在2004年。香港金管局还向香港各家银行出售债券以抵消一部分影响，但其干预措施最终会造成银行体系中的现金越来越多，利率由此下降。野村(Nomura)策略师达比(Sean Darby)说，这种流动性必须有去处。它通常的去处是以下两个地方之一：房地产或股市。这两方面加在一起，致使恒生地产分类指数自3月初以来上涨了54%。这种情况可能会继续。房地产开发商的股价仍低于许多人预计的每股资产净值，同时低成本按揭贷款的效果也很明显：房屋交易量开始反弹，4月份较3月增长38%以上，较上年同期增长2%。一项关键的基准房价今年迄今上涨了13%。风险在于，香港暗淡的经济现实会再度造成影响。瑞信(Credit Suisse)说，香港房地产市场的走势紧跟本地生产总值(GDP)，因此最近的房价上扬可能无法持久。这样一来，房地产开发商的股价就显得过高了。

盖特纳为中国汇率制度辩护

美

国财政部长盖特纳(Timothy Geithner)周三在参议院银行委员会(Senate Banking Committee)作证，对财政部拒绝将中国列为汇率操纵国的决定进行辩护。他称中国已允许人民币大幅升值，并明显降低了对汇率的干预力度。盖特纳表示，回顾过去的两年，中国已在汇率问题上作出了显著的改变。盖特纳表示，美国政府希望看到人民币汇率问题能有更大进展，在全球经历数十年来最严重衰退的情况下，中国目前的举措起到了极具建设性的稳定作用。当天他还向国会介绍了奥巴马政府救助金融市场的最新情况。